Busting this myth is not that hard. Especially since little to no data are available to even calculate valid probabilities of crime in the Caribbean. That was easy – Myth Busted!
Captains who use actual reported and vetted information about crime against yachts in specific Caribbean locations are much better equipped to make their own risk analysis. To use a mysterious and invalid probability that a location is safe versus the use of actual victim reports of what has happened in a specific Caribbean location is dangerous for captain, crew and vessel.
It just doesn’t make sense to use a crafted probability black box when you have reports of actual incidents available.
Besides, it is not genius level knowledge to know that the more boats there are in a location and the more incidents reported in a specific location, the more crime there is. Estimating your chance of experiencing crime is simply a matter of opportunity for crime and actual experience of crime- mythical probabilities have no place.
Of course, if you don’t take precautions your chance of being a victim will go up – one does not need a CSI to figure that out.