Myth – Probabilities are better than actual crime reports?

Busting this myth is not that hard. Especially since little to no data are available to even calculate valid probabilities of crime in the Caribbean. That was easy – Myth Busted!

Captains who use actual reported and vetted information about crime against yachts in specific Caribbean locations are much better equipped to make their own risk analysis. To use a mysterious and invalid probability that a location is safe versus the use of actual victim reports of what has happened in a specific Caribbean location is dangerous for captain, crew and vessel.

Estimating your chance of experiencing crime is simply a matter of opportunity and actual experience – mythical probabilities have no place.

It just doesn’t make sense to use a crafted probability black box when you have reports of actual incidents available.

Besides, it is not genius level knowledge to know that the more boats there are in a location and the more incidents reported in a specific location, the more crime there is. Estimating your chance of experiencing crime is simply a matter of opportunity for crime and actual experience of crime- mythical probabilities have no place.

Of course, if you don’t take precautions your chance of being a victim will go up – one does not need a CSI to figure that out.

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