Crime Prediction is almost impossible to do in a meaningful way.

CSI could not have had good data to use as a basis for calculating an index at a specific location for all types of crime. And most research simply states the well known and obvious. It is not useful for rigorous analysis and it is not value added.

Researchers are at a loss to be able to correlate types of crime with socio demographic factors at country levels and little data has been found at specific locations such as anchorages, harbors, moorings or marinas. CSI claim to predict probabilities in specific locations is unsubstantiated.

The research below has three basic (and very obvious) conclusions. (This is not genius level work)

  1. More visitors = more crime
  2. More crime if the perp can get away with it
  3. And property crime is drug related

The conclusion is that predictions of crime are weak, at high levels and breakdown depending on the type of crime researched.

The research which appears below is esoteric. To make it easier to digest the important portions have been highlighted. See page 3 – 5.

Determinants of Crime for MRA

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